Introduction

The impacts of climate change on Ireland’s biodiversity are already being felt and will gather pace over the coming century. The changing relationship between biodiversity and our climate will have profound implications for Ireland’s future economic and social well-being, as well as affecting the commitments to halt biodiversity loss entered into by Government. Increasingly therefore wider contemporary thinking is emphasizing the close inter-relationship between climate change and biodiversity, and hence the need for an integrated approach to adaptation actions and policy development based on the best available science.

There are a number of biodiversity related projects currently underway at ICARUS:

• Dr John Coll along with Dr David Bourke (NUI, Galway) are currently examining biodiversity issues as part of the EPA funded Co-ordination, Communication and Adaptation for Climate Change in Ireland: an Integrated Approach (COCOADAPT) project. Given the complexity of the issues and the need for the integration of spatial planning policy, they are engaged in efforts to develop fit for purpose spatial databases in a GIS which will facilitate an integrated approach to some of the key research challenges identified for Ireland’s biodiversity resource and priority habitats. This approach recognises that multi-component assessments are needed if progress in modeling species and habitat distributions with a changing climate is to be expected.

  To date they have developed a searchable Access database containing ~657, 000 species records for all of Ireland. This also contains GIS grid co-ordinate information which enables recorded presence records for any of the species to be mapped against multiple layers of environmental, climatic and climate change data. It their intention to add further species and habitat records to this as the project evolves and we acquire additional data, as well as adding spatially referenced climatic and bioclimatic data in relation to species and habitats considered to be of high conservation priority.

  The next phase of the research will involve the application of a range of established climate envelope modeling (CEM) techniques at a 10km resolution for selected species and habitats using outputs from the spatial database that they have developed for Ireland. However, they consider it crucial that any modeling approach using climate change projection data should be informed by an understanding of important climatic controls in the present for any given species or habitat. Hence their first-pass approach has focused on developing predictive models for the presence-absence of candidate species and habitat distribution using 1961-1990 baseline climate data to identify suitable climate predictor variables. For similar reasons they are closely investigating the structure of the data using a mix of univariate and multivariate techniques to eliminate collinearity e.g. in any candidate predictor variables on a case by case basis.

   

• Catríona Duffy is modelling the effects of climate change on the incidence of pests and diseases. Climate change has the potential to modify the population dynamics and geographical distribution of pests and diseases. Some pests and pathogens which are currently of minor economic importance to the Irish agricultural industry could significantly impede productivity if released from the limitations imposed by the current Irish climate. Conversely, important species negatively affecting agricultural output at present could become less important in the future. Range expansions of alien species, as well as the direct effects of climate change on host crops or animals, add another layer of complexity to an already complicated system. Catriona’s aim is to assess the spatial and temporal effects of climate change on the occurrence of selected pests and diseases in Ireland. This research is funded by a Teagasc Walsh Fellowship.

   

• Ciarán Pollard is working on a temperature-based life-history model of blue willow beetle (Phratora Vulgatissima) and evaluation of temperature effects on resistance. The primary objective of this research will be to construct temperature-based life-history models for blue willow beetle and link these to climate models for Ireland. The results from this assessment will be a crucial factor in determining the potential productivity of existing and introduced willow varieties over the course of the present century. The primary outcome of this research is likely to inform agricultural policy with regards to willow types that will prove robust to the likely future incidence of blue willow beetle outbreaks while still producing yield that are economically viable. This research is funded by a Teagasc Walsh Fellowship.